
Energy and Just Transition in South Asia
July 15, 2023

Photo: Collected
South Asia is a sub-region with a population of 1.87 billion, 25% of the global population. It is also the home of around 29% of poor people of the world, with a per capita income of USD 2,150, which is the lowest compared to the other subregions of Asia. With an almost homogeneous culture deeply rooted in the history of struggle and success, South Asia (except the Maldives) also shares borders. The region achieved 95.74% of electricity coverage, but electricity consumption is still only 694 kWh (per capita), which is 2,825 kWh in Southeast Asia.
South Asia is one of the regions in the world that majorly depends on domestic primary energy for electricity. After overcoming the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the countries (e.g., Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka) face a severe financial crisis. According to the latest World Bank report, Sri Lanka is in the worst situation regarding gross short-term external debt compared to the foreign reserve, followed by Pakistan and Bangladesh.
The region is also one of the highest-emitting regions in the world. The seven countries' regions combined emit 4,129.21 million tonnes of carbon dioxide annually. India is the third largest emitting country, just behind China and the United States. Emissions from other countries are also growing very fast. Like the emission, air pollution of the region, particularly in Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan, reached the highest level, and some of the cities like Delhi, Dhaka, and Karachi ranked as the most unlivable cities in the world.
In this critical situation, the global market of fossil fuel, especially petroleum and liquefied natural gas (LNG), has become more volatile due to overbidding by the northern countries and increased shipping costs after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the commodity crisis. As per US Federal Reserve Economic Data, global LNG price in the Asian market increased to USD 41.17 per MMBtu in July 2022 from USD 4.91 in January 2020, which shows a 738% increase in only one and half years.
Ignoring the risks of the current scenario and uncertainty of future fossil fuel supply, four countries in South Asia have taken different initiatives to install Floating Storage and Regasification Units (FSRU) and Onshore Storage and Regasification Units (OSRU) to import and supply LNG to meet long term demand of primary energy, particularly demand of fossil gas. At least 11 LNG Terminals are under operation in South Asian countries, with a capacity of 63.6 million metric tonnes of LNG per year. Other 18 terminals with 86 MTPA of LNG capacity are proposed or are currently under construction. These initiatives will throw South Asia into more economic and environmental crises.
South Asia is also one of the highest coal-burning regions in the world. In the region, a total of 297 Coal-fired Power Plants (CFPP) with a capacity of 275.64 GW are currently in operation, while 53 with a capacity of 42.46 GW are under construction, and 25 with a capacity of 17.95 GW are in the pipeline. In the current energy crisis, countries like Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan emphasize importing more coal rather than promoting more renewables. The upcoming power plants, in addition to the existing ones, most of which run on low efficiency and plant load factor, will only worsen the air quality of the region and emit extreme levels of CO2e in the atmosphere.
On the other hand, South Asia is one of the regions with the highest potential for Renewable energy, especially solar and wind energy. The sub-region can install 3,848.4 GW of solar and wind power plants sufficient for its population. India is the cheapest solar energy producer in the world, with an installed capacity of 63.3 GW across the country. Neighboring countries like Bangladesh and Pakistan also have a potential for solar energy, while Sri Lanka and Maldives have massive potential for wind energy in addition to India and Pakistan.
As South Asia's electricity consumption is not equal to that of Southeast Asia, South Asian countries are required to generate more electricity for the socioeconomic development of their citizens. However, power generated from imported fossil fuel is not feasible due to lower per capita income. So, the region needs to implement community-based renewable energy, besides utility-scale, to ensure affordable energy access for the citizens.
Some other features, such as large agricultural societies, homegrown movements, small innovative ideas, and interconnected territories, made the region unique in diversity. However, national energy plans and policies in South Asia (except India) are highly dominated by Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) and bilateral financial institutions, a significant policy-level barrier to the energy transition.
There is no South Asian standard narrative on Just and equitable Transition. It represents its unique characteristics, incorporates its socioeconomic conditions, and focuses on subregional cooperation considering the Global Climate Change and Economic Crises. There is also a serious gap between activism and knowledge level. The local movement organizers have limited knowledge about global movements and progressive agreements. The region's representation is also minimal (except India) on international platforms.